La situació a l’Iran

Earlywarning
http://www.earlywarning.com/articles/2006_05_05_iran_threatens

5th May, 2006

With the re-referral of Iran to the UN Security Council by the International Atomic Energy Authority, the international community has signalled its concern – but no more.

There are even deep divisions over imposing meaningful sanctions. However, Dick Cheney has long spelled out quietly, but clearly, that Teheran will simply not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.
It would be entirely out of character for the Vice President and the administration to issue threats and then back down on an issue they consider vital to US security, particularly in the face of Iran ratcheting up the rhetoric, and going out of their way to be provocative, stepping up their limited uranium enrichment.

Threats

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other officials have also threatened to:

withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty ban further IAEA inspections export nuclear technology to their allies – this last sinister threat was made by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamonei, to Sudan’s rulers launch attacks against US and allied interests – presumably in Iraq and possibly Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and the West Bank – in retaliation for any American or Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities cut back oil production, a threat that has sent prices soaring in a speculative frenzy wholly unwarranted by current production levels which comfortably exceed demand despite the refinery shortage As well as all this, the rhetoric has been stepped up against Israel as a ‘failed regime’ destined for destruction, and a call has been issued for the return of Jews to Europe in deliberately anti-Semitic language.

Nuclear

Ahmadinejad claims that Iran has passed the point of no return in its uranium enrichment programme, and will operate 3,000 centrifuges by the end of the year, with 50,000 eventually being assembled.

Few observers take this seriously. But some officials in Washington argue privately that the point of no return could be June, while the Israelis put it at the end of the year.For internal reasons, Ahmadinejad craves an Israeli attack, or failing that, an American one, so as to seize complete power.

Ayatollah Khamonei’s more militant line is deeply ominous, suggesting that he is bending to the President’s line.

Iran’s moderates, led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, have been uncharacteristically silent in recent weeks. The intricacies of Teheran’s power struggle are hard to analyse.
But Ahmadinejad seems just as likely to be reinforced if the West gives way to his threats as if it stands up to him.

Strike

The threats from Teheran seem to give the Bush administration little room for manoeuvre if it is to retain its credibility without resort to military action. The British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, has rejected military action as ‘nuts’; but his stance seems aimed primarily at Tony Blair, who would back a US strike.

The outcry against him from his Labour party would be such that he would have to seek Conservative support, which might or might not be forthcoming under new leader David Cameron.
The US would not seek UN authorisation for such action, because it would have no need for THE complex coalition–building process and military build-up that preceded the full-scale invasion of Iraq. ?What is contemplated is an unexpected strike lasting a few days at most. This would be presented to the world as a fait accompli in a presidential broadcast stating the seriousness of the threat – as President Bush senior did for the invasion of Panama.

Weapons

The American range of military options is limited.
Recent talk of using tactical nuclear bunker-busting weapons can be dismissed as disinformation designed to unsettle the Iranians:

Washington would not use such weapons against a non-nuclear target. None of Iran’s nuclear facilities are so crucial or so deeply embedded that nuclear arms would be required.
Conventional bunker-busting bombs would destroy the giant cave at Natanz, which is only 50 feet under ground. The Isfahan facility is on the surface. Others are too small to require nuclear attack.
earlywarning believes the nuclear disinformation is just an answer to Teheran’s disinformation that it already has a bomb which it would use in the event of a conventional raid.

Options

Options being considered by the US are:

An overnight raid from carriers in the Gulf and air bases in Iraq, involving 600-1,000 sorties. While this would do damage, it would be enough to justify the furore it would generate
More extensive raids lasting several days to cripple Iran’s nuclear effort for several years. This would involve extensive attacks against air defence facilities, and calibrated attacks on non-nuclear military targets such as military and intelligence headquarters. If Teheran retaliated, more attacks would follow.

An option which earlywarning believes is gaining support in the Pentagon involves paratroops landing to seize military installations and defend them while nuclear facilities were thoroughly destroyed.

This would involve US – and probably also British – forces on Iranian soil, though it would not amount to invasion as the forces would be withdrawn as soon as the job was done, preferably after only a few hours.

The military effort would be considerable, and the troops would be exposed to enemy fire and capture. The Iranians might use their old tactic of massing ‘human waves’ against the allied forces. The military trade-off between doing the job less well at less risk, or more completely at more risk would come into play for Washington.

Oil

The Bush administration is concerned about the possibility of a retaliatory Iranian-backed Shia uprising in southern Iraq and Baghdad, as well as the prospect of Iranian air strikes to disrupt oil exports from the Gulf, and an Iranian oil embargo.

But some in the White House argue that these are empty threats because they would back-fire much more on Iran. To counter oil moves, the US would release some of its strategic petroleum reserve, as the Saudis used some of their spare capacity.

While the Bush administration is sticking to its formula of ‘diplomacy for now, but all the cards are on the table’, Washington has quietly ratcheted up the rhetoric.

The latest report on terrorism by the State Department describes Iran as the world’s most active state sponsor of terrorism, for the first time implicating its government and the military and intelligence services in supporting extremists in Iraq, Lebanon and the West Bank. There is more than echo here of the allegations that Saddam Hussein had acquired nuclear technology and the claim that Iraq sponsored terrorism – both later discredited.

Next month?

In Iran’s case there is no question that it is close to acquiring nuclear technology (peaceful, it claims) or that it boasts of seeking to export Islamic revolution and has links with extremist movements.
Israel has drawn attention to Iran’s recent acquisition of North Korean BM-15 missiles with a range of 1,500 miles and capable of carrying nuclear warheads, which earlywarning reported earlier.?
That, coupled with Ahmadinejad’s pledge to hand nuclear technology to friends – perhaps including terrorists – would give Washington a powerful argument for acting. There are those in the White House who argue that Teheran is indulging in Cuban missile-style brinkmanship, but it appears perilously close to the edge. Indeed, some of earlywarning’s sources believe an attack could come as soon as June.

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