Informe Negroponte 2007

Vamos un poco tarde (no pude leerlo antes) pero el dia 11 Negroponte entregó su informe sobre seguridad para Estados Undios. Aquí los pasajes más “asiáticos” del mismo.

PROLIFERACIÓN

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us because their regimes disregard
international opprobrium, flout UN Security Council restrictions on their nuclear programs,
pervert the legitimate purposes of governance, and ignore the needs and rights of their citizens. (no creo que puedan compararse así ambos regimenes, o en todo caso, podríamos decir lo mismo de Israel y otros Estados)

CHINA

The rise of China and economic prosperity more generally—except for North Korea—are
changing Northeast Asia in unprecedented ways. Trade and investment, driven by China’s
successful integration into the world economy through the World Trade Organization
framework, is rapidly bringing the countries of this region closer together; but it still lacks
mature, integrating security mechanisms, beyond the US security treaties with Japan and South Korea.
In 2006, Chinese leaders increasingly moved to align Beijing’s foreign policy with the needs of
domestic development, identifying opportunities to strengthen economic growth, gain access to
new sources of energy, and mitigate what they see as potential external threats to social stability.
At one and the same time, China places a priority on positive relations with the United States
while strengthening ties to the other major powers, especially the EU and Russia.
We assess that China’s aspirations for great power status, threat perceptions, and security strategy would drive this modernization effort even if the Taiwan problem were resolved.

INDIA

Although both New Delhi and Islamabad are fielding a more mature strategic nuclear capability,
they do not appear to be engaged in a Cold War-style arms race based on a quest for numerical
superiority.

ASIA CENTRAL:

Fifteen years after the dissolution of the USSR, post-Soviet Eurasia remains in a state of flux—
more so than even a year ago—but increasingly subject to Russian assertiveness. (…)
Of the five countries in the region, three—Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and especially Uzbekistan—are authoritarian; another, Kyrgyzstan, is semi-authoritarian and increasingly fearful of losing control; and the last, Turkmenistan, is a dictatorship in the midst of a power struggle. All view our democratization agenda with suspicion. The repression, leadership stasis, and corruption that tend to characterize these regimes provide fertile soil for the development of radical Islamic sentiment and movements, and raise questions about the Central Asian states reliability as energy and counterterrorism partners. (esto son los topicos de hace 10 años, pero después)
• There is no guarantee that elite and societal turmoil across Central Asia will stay within the
confines of existing autocratic systems. In the worst, but not implausible case, central
authority in one or more of these states could evaporate as rival political factions, clans, or
regions vie for power—opening the door to a dramatic expansion of terrorist and criminal
activity along the lines of a failed state.

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